A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
